Pentagon AI Tool to Reshape Manufacturing Supply Chains
The US Department of Defense’s AI programme for critical mineral pricing has moved into the hands of the private sector.
Originally designed to counter Chinese influence over the global minerals market, the tool has been transferred to the Critical Minerals Forum (CMF), a non-profit organisation aiming to make one of the more opaque segments of the manufacturing supply chain more transparent.
The AI-driven model, known as the Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN), was launched in 2023.
No longer serving only US national security interests, its new application lies in offering manufacturers, miners and investors clearer guidance on future costs of metals – essential for production ranging from electric vehicles to renewable energy infrastructure.
Supply chain visibility for improved manufacturing decisions
Developed with input from S&P Global, Charles River Analytics, Exiger and pricing firm Metal Miner, OPEN uses AI to analyse more than 70 data sources.
These include commercial datasets and government inputs from the US Commerce Department and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
The model offers cost estimates for key inputs such as labour, processing and logistics without what the CMF describes as Chinese market manipulation.
“Everyone in the critical minerals sector is looking for more price transparency,” says Seth Goldstein, a lithium analyst at Morningstar.
“Any tool like the CMF that could help would be welcome.”
While the model doesn't produce minerals or dictate prices, it informs long-term supply agreements by offering estimates rooted in production economics.
This enables manufacturers to agree contracts based on projected input costs, rather than uncertain spot prices. This capability is particularly relevant for businesses investing in new mining projects, where financial backers require robust pricing data.
The model is already influencing real-world decisions. In Nevada, officials are exploring collaboration with the CMF to attract copper smelters—an effort to reduce the US’s reliance on imports.
The US currently has just two operational copper smelters and imports nearly half its demand.
Industry uptake and geopolitical backdrop
The CMF, chaired by former US diplomat Rob Strayer, has signed up more than 30 founding members.
These include major players such as Volkswagen, mining group South32, rare earths producer MP Materials and defence contractor RTX.
The forum’s goal is to expand further into sectors such as aviation, semiconductors and defence manufacturing.
Membership of the CMF is currently free, although premium data access may incur future fees. Its model remains funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) until at least 2029.
The long-term intention is not to commercialise the platform, but to maintain it as an impartial data resource governed by its members.
The CMF enters the market at a time when China is enforcing controls on key minerals such as gallium, germanium and rare earths.
These elements are critical to technologies used in wind turbines, electric motors and semiconductor manufacturing, among others.
Due to limited trade volumes and centralised production, pricing for these minerals is highly vulnerable to policy shifts and supply distortions.
According to analysts involved in the model, it "assumes that if buyers want guaranteed access, they’ll pay a premium.” This premium reflects actual production and processing costs rather than market speculation or overcapacity.
The Chinese government maintains that its policies comply with international standards. “China will continue to work with other countries to jointly undertake the responsibility of global rare earths supply,” said Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington.
Manufacturing input data for pricing leverage
Companies operating within the US and allied nations are currently using the CMF tool to strengthen their own pricing arguments.
Massachusetts-based rare earths company Phoenix Tailings is among those relying on the model.
The firm’s chief executive, Nick Myers, says: “In a sector that is opaque, it is one of the tools to get more information.”
Manufacturers looking to secure metals from low-carbon sources may also benefit.
The CMF’s AI model offers pricing benchmarks that support a “green premium”—an uplift in price for materials produced to higher environmental standards. This could be important for supply chains committed to reducing emissions and improving traceability.
As demand for transparency and security in raw materials grows, the CMF continues to focus on increasing its global footprint.
Governments in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, two major mineral producers, have shown interest in aligning with the initiative.
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