Manufacturing Faces Peak Disruption Risk, CIPS Survey Shows

Global supply chain anxiety is reaching record levels, with procurement professionals worldwide reporting heightened concern in both short-term and long-term outlooks. 

According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) Q2 2025 Pulse Survey, geopolitical instability and tariff developments are driving these rising fears, which are now the highest since the survey began tracking sentiment.

Supply risks from every angle

Responses from 200 senior supply chain and procurement leaders, spanning sectors including manufacturing, healthcare, banking and government, reveal that supply chains are bracing for risk. 

Fuel, food and shipping in particular are flagged as key concern areas, with forecasts pointing to major price increases across the board.

The survey asks professionals to score their level of concern from one to seven, offering a quantitative view of how risk perception is changing. 

Between Q1 and Q2, this concern has grown noticeably. The average short-term concern score for the next three months now stands at 4.57, up from 4.36 in Q1 — the highest result to date. 

When looking 12 months ahead, the score increases further to 5.03, compared with 4.91 previously.

CIPS Economist Dr John Glen says: “This pulse check clearly indicates the impact of escalating tariffs globally and increased geopolitical tension in the Middle East on procurement managers’ perception of supply chain risk.

“The volatility and uncertainty which has permeated global supply chains is providing unprecedented, in recent times, challenges to procurement professionals.”

Rising concern is closely linked to the conflict in the Middle East and changes in United States tariff policies. 

With every major industry affected, from electronics and logistics to medicine and agriculture, there is little clarity about when or how disruption might ease. 

CIPS Chief Executive Officer Ben Farrell adds: “Global procurement leaders are operating in uncharted waters. Between geopolitical shocks, tariff upheaval and ongoing price volatility, we’re seeing levels of anxiety we’ve never recorded before.

“It’s no longer a question of ‘if’ disruption happens, it's about preparing for when and where.”

Price hikes across five key sectors

While inflation was seen as the main issue in the first quarter, that focus is now shifting. 

Though inflation concerns have fallen from 59% to 41%, procurement professionals are now concentrating on wider threats,  including availability and political risk. 

One of the clearest indicators of pressure ahead is the number of spend categories expecting input price rises above 10%. In Q1, three categories breached that level. In Q2, that number has risen to five.

These anticipated increases will impact consumers. Higher fuel prices are expected to affect both transport and heating, while spikes in food input costs may result in steeper grocery bills. 

Shipping remains a central concern, with supply leaders warning that freight inflation will send ripple effects through every product category, from furniture to packaged goods.

According to John: “The fact that significant price increases are now appearing in multiple channels within supply chains will put additional pressure on organisations to increase final prices to consumers.

“This in turn may inhibit the ability of central banks to reduce interest rates in the short term and in doing so inhibit central bank’s ability to stimulate insipid levels of economic growth in Europe and the UK.”

Strategies not enough to offset risk

When respondents were asked to name the primary causes of current shortages, 53% pointed to geopolitical instability. Another 36% highlighted the US-China trade conflict. While supply chain managers continue to diversify supplier bases and increase insourcing to mitigate volatility, concern continues to grow faster than confidence.

Ben says: “We are entering a new era of supply chain risk, where political decisions thousands of miles away directly raise prices at the checkout.

“From shipping lanes to silicon chips, no category is safe from disruption. Procurement professionals are the economy’s early warning system and this quarter; the alarms are blaring.”