How can Pharma Giants Keep up with Obesity Drug Demand?

The World Health Organization has issued a stark warning regarding escalating global shortages of vital GLP-1 medicines, including Ozempic and Wegovy.

The WHO is advocating for more equitable access to these treatments, citing serious pressures on supply chains and costs.

It comes as obesity rates are soaring and global demand for these effective weight-loss drugs continues to outpace production capabilities.

With obesity now affecting more than a billion people across the globe, the WHO is calling on governments and pharmaceutical manufacturers to urgently implement measures aimed at expanding the supply of these medicines and making them more affordable.

The warning is set against a backdrop of rising obesity rates, which are projected to exceed two billion people by 2030. This trend is placing an immense and unsustainable strain on healthcare systems that are already stretched to their limits.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO, has stated that these new recommendations should represent a pivotal moment in the global approach to obesity. He emphasised that the new guidance acknowledges obesity as a chronic disease that requires comprehensive and lifelong care.

Dr Ghebreyesus also noted that, while medication alone is not a panacea for this global health crisis, GLP-1 therapies have the potential to help millions of people manage their obesity and mitigate its associated health risks.

Production bottlenecks and supply chain pressures

Even with the most optimistic production forecasts, the WHO projects that manufacturers will only be able to supply approximately 100 million patients by the year 2030. This figure accounts for fewer than 10% of the individuals who are eligible for these treatments, highlighting the great gap between the demand for glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) medicines, such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, and the available supply.

The accessibility of these drugs is hampered by a combination of high costs, limited manufacturing capacity and fragile supply chains, creating a bottleneck that a single company cannot resolve on its own.

In markets like the UK, the prices for certain drugs, including Mounjaro, have increased dramatically. The retail price of Mounjaro surged by 170% this year, bringing it in line with international pricing.

In addition to rising costs, the reported shortages have also led to the emergence of a black market for counterfeit or substandard versions of these medications. The WHO has issued a warning about the serious health risks posed by unregulated sales, especially when these drugs are purchased through social media platforms or from cosmetic clinics.

The economics of manufacturing and access

The obesity epidemic is not only a healthcare crisis but also a major financial one. The global economic impact of obesity is projected to exceed US$3tn annually by 2030, a figure driven by the increasing prevalence of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and various cancers that are linked to excess weight.

This financial burden is shared by both individuals and governments.

The new guideline from the WHO advocates for a dual-pronged strategy. It calls for the expansion of production through measures such as voluntary licence agreements and tiered pricing. Simultaneously, it encourages governments to foster healthier environments that can help prevent obesity from developing in the first place.

A key patent for semaglutide – the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s popular drug Wegovy – is set to expire in 2026 in several key markets. This will create an opportunity for generic versions of the medication to be manufactured in countries such as India, Canada and Brazil.

The WHO is hopeful that a wider licence will pave the way for more affordable alternatives to become available in the global South, a region where obesity rates are rising most rapidly, yet treatment options remain scarce.

Long-term strategy and therapeutic limitations

Despite its considerable promise, GLP-1 therapy is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Research has indicated that many individuals regain a significant portion of the weight they lost within a year of discontinuing the treatment. Furthermore, there is still limited data available on the long-term safety of these drugs.

The WHO emphasises that these medications should only be prescribed as part of a comprehensive treatment programme that includes professional dietary advice and behavioural support. This highlights a change in understanding obesity – viewing it not as a lifestyle choice, but as a complex chronic condition influenced by biology and environmental factors.

The WHO plans to review and update its guidance as new evidence becomes available, with a subsequent review scheduled for 2026. This future assessment will aim to address the ongoing challenges related to supply and to prioritise access for those who are most severely affected.

For the time being, the worldwide shortage of these drugs has transformed a major scientific breakthrough into a profound ethical dilemma. For the World Health Organisation, the hope is that a combination of political determination and cooperation from the pharmaceutical industry can transform these life-changing medicines into accessible tools for everyone, not just the select few who have the means to afford them.